Can Gulf States Talk Their Way Out of Iran’s Missiles?

Key Points

1. Six months of Iranian strikes have exposed the limits of U.S. bases hosted across the Gulf.
2. Gulf states are pursuing direct diplomacy with Tehran, though Monday's planned meeting in Oman collapsed.
3. No single alternative guarantor exists, leaving Gulf capitals negotiating with the adversary that struck them.

The latest:

Iranian missiles and drones have battered the Gulf states for six months, hitting U.S. bases, setting luxury hotels ablaze and knocking offline a Saudi oil pipeline, according to The New York Times. Gulf Arab officials are now assembling alternatives, including direct talks with Tehran. A meeting with Iranian officials scheduled for Monday in Oman was abruptly postponed.

Details:

• The collapse: A senior Gulf official, speaking anonymously to The New York Times to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said Saudi Arabia and Iran hit an impasse over the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh proposed amendments, including one rejecting Iran’s assertion that the strait is not an international waterway. Tehran rejected some and sought more time on others.
• Iran’s account: Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday the meeting would have been an opportunity to discuss creating a secure region free from the interference of other actors. He confirmed Saudi Arabia requested the delay. No new date has been announced.
• The Bahrain base: A major American naval base hosted for decades was nearly destroyed in February, on the first day of Iran’s retaliatory attacks against the U.S.-Israeli assault, according to a U.S. military official. Most sailors were evacuated to Florida, leaving a skeleton crew behind. Admiral Daryl Caudle, chief of naval operations, said some left so rapidly the Navy is still reuniting them with their belongings, and that their return date is unclear.
• The Hormuz cost: Iran has choked off much of the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz while threatening a toll system for vessels, a major strategic failure and an economic setback for Gulf energy exporters, according to The New York Times. An Iranian-Omani shipping proposal was on Monday’s agenda.
• The military gap: Gulf militaries remain smaller and weaker than Iran’s despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent on advanced weaponry, including American F-15 fighter jets and Patriot missile defense systems. China and Russia have not stepped in to defend the Gulf countries despite close ties with several of them.
• The interceptor shortage: A short global supply of U.S. missile interceptors strained the Gulf states in the early weeks of the war, and they turned to Ukraine and other European countries to fill the gap. Even enhanced air defenses cannot fully stop relatively inexpensive Iranian drones.
• Washington’s answer: White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said President Trump is in constant communication with regional partners and that the United States maintains stronger bonds with these countries than ever before. She dismissed claims that American protection was insufficient, saying analysts making them have “no idea what they are talking about.”
• The analysts: Kristian Alexander of the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute assessed that Washington prioritized protecting its personnel and defending Israel, priorities that did not always match Gulf needs to protect airports, ports and desalination plants. Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group judged new partnerships would supplement rather than replace the U.S. umbrella.
• Regional proposals: Oman’s foreign minister Badr al-Busaidi called in a July essay in Le Monde for a multilateral arrangement binding the Gulf states with Iran and Iraq. A separate defense pact among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey remains unproven, with no clarity on whether members would aid each other.

Background:

Several Gulf countries pursued rapprochement with Iran years before the war, hoping reduced tension would shield them. The war initially derailed that track. The Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have since returned to diplomacy aimed at rebuilding trust and shared economic interests.

Between the lines:

Emirati official Anwar Gargash acknowledged this month that engagement is inevitable because geography leaves no alternative, a framing that matches the picture drawn across the reporting: Gulf militaries are outmatched, Beijing and Moscow stayed out, and Washington’s own interceptor stocks ran thin. Talks with Tehran are not a strategic preference here but the residual option after the others were tested and found wanting.

What’s next

No new date has been set for the postponed Gulf-Iran meeting in Oman. Watch whether Tehran accepts the Saudi amendment on Hormuz’s legal status, whether the threatened vessel toll takes effect, and whether evacuated U.S. sailors return to Bahrain.