OpenAI projects $278 billion cash burn through 2030, FT says

Summary

• OpenAI expects negative free cash flow of $278 billion between 2026 and 2030, the Financial Times reported.
• Compute and infrastructure spending is forecast near $856 billion by 2030, the company's largest cost category.
• The scale of the burn explains why OpenAI keeps returning to investors despite a trillion-dollar valuation discussion.

The latest

OpenAI expects to burn through $278 billion in cash between 2026 and 2030 as it scales spending on computing power and infrastructure, the Financial Times reported Friday, citing a company presentation it had seen. The projection lands as the ChatGPT maker pursues fresh investment, after FT reported earlier in the week that talks with investors could value the company near $1.2 trillion.

Details

• The core number: OpenAI forecasts negative free cash flow of $278 billion across the five-year period from 2026 through 2030, according to the Financial Times, which said the figure comes from an internal company presentation. The burn is tied to aggressive investment in securing the computing capacity needed to train and run its models.
• The biggest expense: The company projects spending roughly $856 billion on computing power and infrastructure by the end of 2030, the FT said, making it OpenAI's largest single cost category. That figure exceeds the cumulative revenue the company expects to generate over the same stretch.
• The revenue side: OpenAI expects revenue to rise tenfold over the period, from $36 billion this year to $350 billion in 2030, according to the FT. Cumulative revenue through the end of the decade is forecast at $840 billion, still below the projected compute bill.
• The cash runway: The FT reported that OpenAI raised $122 billion in March at an $852 billion valuation, and said the company is on track to exhaust that cash by 2028. That timeline leaves two years of the forecast period unfunded by the existing raise.
• The valuation talks: The Financial Times reported earlier in the week that OpenAI had held discussions with investors that could value the company at about $1.2 trillion, ahead of a potential public listing. The newspaper did not name the investors involved in those talks.
• The IPO question: OpenAI filed confidentially for an initial public offering in June. Chief Executive Sam Altman said on Saturday the company would not go public in 2026, citing concerns about AI safety. He did not set an alternative timeline for a listing.
• No company response: Reuters said OpenAI could not immediately be reached for comment outside regular business hours. The company has not publicly addressed the presentation figures or confirmed the projections described by the Financial Times.

Background

OpenAI has funded its expansion through successive private raises rather than public markets, with valuations climbing across each round. The June confidential IPO filing signaled preparation for a listing, but the company has not completed that step.

Between the lines

The projections sit in tension with each other: $856 billion in compute spending against $840 billion in cumulative revenue explains why the free cash flow line stays deeply negative through 2030. That gap, combined with a March raise expected to run dry by 2028, points to further fundraising rounds before any listing — and helps explain why valuation talks near $1.2 trillion are underway while an IPO has been pushed past 2026.

What's next

Watch for confirmation or revision of the $1.2 trillion valuation talks, any new funding round before the 2028 cash exhaustion point flagged by the FT, and whether Altman sets a listing timeline beyond 2026.

Source: Reuters, Financial Times