Trump tells Axios he faces big decision on resuming Iran strikes

Key Points

1. Trump said he is nearing a decision on whether to annihilate the Iranian regime.
2. He meets leaders of six Gulf states Tuesday at the UN General Assembly.
3. Resuming major combat would require buy-in from Gulf allies wary of Iranian retaliation.

The latest:

A decision on whether to restart massive attacks on Iran is approaching, President Trump told Axios Thursday, describing it as a big choice between going in to annihilate the Iranian regime or holding off. The comments land days before a planned Tuesday meeting with leaders of six Gulf countries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Details:

• His words: Trump framed the choice starkly in the interview, saying anything could happen with him, according to Axios. He declined to say whether he will settle on a path before or after the November midterm elections, leaving the timing of any escalation open.
• The meeting: The Gulf leaders attending are from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman, Axios reported. Trump said he wants to hear directly from regional allies about where they stand, adding that Washington has been very protective of them.
• The August pause: Trump held off on resuming major combat operations in early August after Saudi Arabia and Qatar warned Iran could bomb Saudi oil and gas facilities in retaliation, according to Axios. That concern still shapes whether he can secure regional backing for escalation.
• The low-key phase: Since August, Trump has suspended negotiations with Iran, launched a new economic sanctions campaign, maintained a naval blockade on Iranian ports and directed the U.S. military toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and boosting oil flows to global markets.
• The blockade: Trump said he is very satisfied that the blockade has stopped Iranian oil exports, claiming no ship has reached Iran since it began and that vessels attempting it were destroyed. He also said Iran is in direct contact with Washington and still wants a deal.
• The numbers: Tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz has risen significantly under U.S. military escort, Axios reported. Traffic remains below pre-war levels and oil prices are still high, leaving the energy dimension of the campaign unresolved.
• Force posture: Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have ordered the military to maintain its current troop levels in the Middle East through the end of the year, U.S. officials said, keeping forces ready for a possible return to full-scale combat.
• Officials’ warning: Some U.S. officials describe the conflict as an unsustainable stalemate that is neither war nor peace, and assess Trump could resume major operations after the midterms absent a deal. One official said a decision on the end game cannot be deferred indefinitely.
• Post-war planning: The White House is drafting a post-war strategy built around a regional effort to contain Iran and expanded normalization between Israel and its neighbors, Axios reported. The plan remains in early stages and is meant to guide policy through Trump’s final two years.
• Also: U.S. officials say the military cannot hold its current Middle East posture much longer.

Between the lines:

Two electoral dates frame the decision window: Israel’s Oct. 27 election and the U.S. midterms in November. Trump’s refusal to say whether he decides before or after the midterms, combined with orders keeping forces in place only through year’s end, suggests the military timeline and the political timeline are being weighed against each other rather than separately.

What’s next

Tuesday’s meeting with the six Gulf leaders in New York is the immediate signal, particularly whether Riyadh and Doha repeat their August objections. Watch Strait of Hormuz tanker volumes and any announcement on resuming talks with Tehran.